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I'd like to buy it, but I am skeptical. I'd love it if anyone would poke holes in my logic about this.
I can't tell from the phrasing of the commentary just when the speaker is referring to statistics about bc in general vs HER2 bc. I remember reading that over half of all recurrences happen after 10 years (which actually makes a lot of sense, considering that chemo primarily is used to delay recurrence and thus can push it farther out in time, and also because if one lives 12 more years or 20 more years without recurrence there are just more years beyond 10 years to count). We are learning that doxorubicin may work especially well for topo II/HER2's and that too could delay recurrence longer for HER2's.
Also, IF most HER2's do die off early, that in itself would only leave a smaller pool of HER2s to recur later.
Out of all those with bc, only 1/3 are HER2 positive (and is it true that some of those are HER2++ and not HER2+++?) Out of those who are genuinely HER2+++, is it true that only about 30% benefit from traztuzumab?
If Adjuvant! isn't ready to separate out HER2 as a factor we can enter into recurrence or mortality rates for treatment, then, how accurate would one researcher's prediction be? Especially considering that even Adjuvant! doesn't predict beyond 10 years....
AlaskaAngel
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