HER2 Support Group Forums - View Single Post - putting risk of brain mets as first evidence of recurrence in perspective

Becky · 05-28-2006, 08:07 AM

RB

The 25% - 35% statistic for Her 2 is correct for women who have metastatic disease to begin with (ie: they are being treated for bc in their liver or lungs etc). I do know that for Her2 bc that metastasizes, in 10% of the cases the brain is the first metastatic site (the #1 site for a first met is the bones and I think 45% is the statistic there).

Now, that 10% is of the percentage of Her2s that do have a recurrence. This depends on stage etc so you can use published statistics there for all bc then add 10% (this is what my onc told me).

For example, if you are Stage 2A, statistics are that you will be disease free for 5 years at 76% but he told me that Her2s would be 66% (before Herceptin as an adjuvant). So, lets use 66% anyway. It means that 34% will have a recurrence. 72% of recurrences are local (this is a general statistic and not a Her2 statistic but we will use it for this exercise anyway) so that means that 28% are distant. 10% of that is 2.8% get a brain met (as the first distant met) (and most Stage 2s get chemo - let's face that as the tumor has to be over 2cm with no nodes or any size up to 5 cm with 1-3 nodes).

All brain met statistics with herceptin have to be coming from those with metastatic disease first (at this point) since using Herceptin as an adjuvant is so new (even for the women who were the first ones in the trial).

I will look for some stats in my files (but later on today as we are going out shortly).

Kind regards

Becky

05-28-2006, 08:07 AM	#11
Becky Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Stockton, NJ Posts: 4,179	RB The 25% - 35% statistic for Her 2 is correct for women who have metastatic disease to begin with (ie: they are being treated for bc in their liver or lungs etc). I do know that for Her2 bc that metastasizes, in 10% of the cases the brain is the first metastatic site (the #1 site for a first met is the bones and I think 45% is the statistic there). Now, that 10% is of the percentage of Her2s that do have a recurrence. This depends on stage etc so you can use published statistics there for all bc then add 10% (this is what my onc told me). For example, if you are Stage 2A, statistics are that you will be disease free for 5 years at 76% but he told me that Her2s would be 66% (before Herceptin as an adjuvant). So, lets use 66% anyway. It means that 34% will have a recurrence. 72% of recurrences are local (this is a general statistic and not a Her2 statistic but we will use it for this exercise anyway) so that means that 28% are distant. 10% of that is 2.8% get a brain met (as the first distant met) (and most Stage 2s get chemo - let's face that as the tumor has to be over 2cm with no nodes or any size up to 5 cm with 1-3 nodes). All brain met statistics with herceptin have to be coming from those with metastatic disease first (at this point) since using Herceptin as an adjuvant is so new (even for the women who were the first ones in the trial). I will look for some stats in my files (but later on today as we are going out shortly). Kind regards Becky Last edited by Becky; 05-28-2006 at 08:09 AM..