HER2 Support Group Forums - View Single Post - Perhaps 70% or more response rate to adjuvant Herceptin

AlaskaAngel · 02-13-2006, 11:26 PM

It is estimated that 60% of those diagnosed with early stage bc would never need anything but surgery. Maybe all of those who are HER2 positive are considered to be in the remaining 40%. Until now the percentage of HER2-positive have been estimated as being between 25% and 30% of all bc diagnosed. Considering that perhaps even a certain major cancer treatment center may not have been routinely testing all those diagnosed with bc for HER2 status to begin with, and add to that the recognized inaccuracy in a significant number of test results from local labs, we will probably see a larger percentage that test HER2-positive than have been counted in the past.

I'm told that if we make it to 2 years out, we are pretty safe, and that most who will recur will have recurred by then. But if the recommended cutoff for authorized use of Herceptin is 1 year out, and the safety margin is 2 years out then what about those poor souls who are stuck between 1 year out and 2 years out????

Another unanswered question is, what percentage of HER2-positives don't make it past 2 years (and thus also, what percentage do)?

Maybe by some odd chance, only those who are not HER2-positive recur after 2 years out?

But here is an interesting point made in an article written in 2001 that discussed the question of the length of time that a SERM should be used:

"There are almost as many breast cancer deaths in the second decade after diagnosis as in the first decade after diagnosis."

Does anyone here want to bet their life that HER2-positives don't usually recur after 2 years out? Or let their onc bet their life for them?

02-13-2006, 11:26 PM	#3
AlaskaAngel Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Alaska Posts: 2,018	How do YOU bet? It is estimated that 60% of those diagnosed with early stage bc would never need anything but surgery. Maybe all of those who are HER2 positive are considered to be in the remaining 40%. Until now the percentage of HER2-positive have been estimated as being between 25% and 30% of all bc diagnosed. Considering that perhaps even a certain major cancer treatment center may not have been routinely testing all those diagnosed with bc for HER2 status to begin with, and add to that the recognized inaccuracy in a significant number of test results from local labs, we will probably see a larger percentage that test HER2-positive than have been counted in the past. I'm told that if we make it to 2 years out, we are pretty safe, and that most who will recur will have recurred by then. But if the recommended cutoff for authorized use of Herceptin is 1 year out, and the safety margin is 2 years out then what about those poor souls who are stuck between 1 year out and 2 years out???? Another unanswered question is, what percentage of HER2-positives don't make it past 2 years (and thus also, what percentage do)? Maybe by some odd chance, only those who are not HER2-positive recur after 2 years out? But here is an interesting point made in an article written in 2001 that discussed the question of the length of time that a SERM should be used: "There are almost as many breast cancer deaths in the second decade after diagnosis as in the first decade after diagnosis." Does anyone here want to bet their life that HER2-positives don't usually recur after 2 years out? Or let their onc bet their life for them?