[Lien]

I was told by my onc

* That roughly 3 out of 4 recurrances are metastatic.
* That we have no idea who will recur and who will not,
* That most people with Her2+ disease recur within 2 years from diagnosis
* That recurrences can pop up even after 25 years

So if you are initially diagnosed with Stage 1 disease, your statistical 5 year risk of recurrence is about 2%, and your risk of mets is almost none, according to these stats. However, because of the characteristics of the tumor, this risk could be higher.

In my case, it was about 20%. By doing radiation therapy and hormonal therapy, my statistical risk was reduced to about 10%. After 9,5 years, my residual risk of recurrence is somewhere around 6%.

Having said that, if I had recurred earlier, I would have been one of the unlucky few. So all those statistics would not have meant a thing. It gave me some peace of mind, though, to go for those therapies that gave me better odds. It felt like I was doing something to fight the cancer. Ofcourse, if my type of cancer was fuelled by yet another, unknown pathway, it would not have made a difference.

For someone with a Stage 3 diagnosis, that 3 out of 4 number would be scarier. But you could still belong to the lucky 1 in 4 club and live happily ( or not so happily) ever after. Thus a person who was initially diagnosed with stage 1 could die from mets, while a person with a Stage 3 diagnosis could be cancer-free for the rest of his or her life.

We need to find out more. I saw a short article in a Dutch newspaper this morning, stating that a lot of new information was gathered on which genes drive which mutations that start the process of developing cancer. I haven't been able to find a link to an English article and I don't know how trustworthy that info was. I'll let you know when I find out.

Jacqueline