Despite massive early IT problems, exchange enrollment is accelerating rapidly. While enrollment may not reach 7 million by the end of March, we expect at least 5 million to have enrolled by the close of the initial open-enrollment period. If enrollment falls far short, HHS could extend open enrollment for a fixed period to reach its 7 million target. ... We project that 5 million new beneficiaries will be covered by Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program by the end of 2014. Medicaid managed-care enrollment of non-dual beneficiaries will increase by 20 percent from 2013 to 2014 and by 38 percent from 2013 to 2016. We expect that 75 percent of non-dual Medicaid beneficiaries will be covered by Managed Care Organizations starting in 2015, up from 63 percent in 2012 (Feb. 2014).
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