['lizbeth]

I don't have a direct answer. But from 2003 - 2009 NCI SEER information only 5% are stage IV at initial diagnosis, so about 11,617 women per year have distant metastasis right from the start. We lose 8,794 of these wonderful women within 5 years. Then 2,823 are stage IV survivors.

74,349 women are initially diagnosed with regional, positive nodes. If my math is correct 15.6%, 11,598 of these women will definitely recur and die from breast cancer mets before 5 years.

I suspect some of the remaining 62,750 women will progress to Stage IV, but still be alive at the 5 year mark. I don't have exact numbers but my guess would be between 15 and 20%: Between 9,413 and 12,550 annually.

141,727 women are diagnosed early with localized breast cancer. Of this large group, only 1,984 progress enough to die of breast cancer within 5 years.

If we estimate that 5% of the group would progress to Stage IV but remain alive, that would be 7,086 women annually.

Keep in mind that much of this information in before Herceptin became standard of care for local and regional breast cancer in 2007 or 2008. The preferred standard of care chemo shifted from ACT to TCH. Tykerb, Perjeta and Kadcyla have since been approved. Many of the women in clinical trials are also decreasing the numbers with upcoming targeted therapies and vaccines.

Again, all my numbers for progression into stage IV from local and regional initial diagnosis are purely guesses. I needed to get close to the 39,620 annual deaths and I think my guesses put me a bit below the number.

Maybe someone can remember seeing actual figures and share this with us.