Breast cancer risk can be predicted using new technique
 

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A new way of predicting a woman’s risk of developing breast cancer has been developed.

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/...r_2517769b.jpg Scientists were able to accurately predict which women would develope cancer Photo: Alamy








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By Richard Gray, Science Correspondent

10:00PM BST 30 Jul 2013

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Researchers at the National Cancer Institute in Bethesda, US, have produced a statistical formula that calculates a woman’s risk of developing the disease over a 10 and 20 year period.

The technique, which examines their age, number of children they have, diet, lifestyle weight, use of contraception and whether they have had hormone treatment, could help doctors identify patients who need to undergo more regular screening.

The technique, this is outlined it he journal PLOS Medicine, can also be used to predict the risk of ovarian and endometrial cancer.

In a trial involving almost 122,000 women, the scientists found that the risk of developing breast cancer in women older than 50 ranged from 1.57 per cent to 21.78 per cent over a 10 year period. The risk ranged from 3.64 per cent to 35.11 per cent over 20 years.

The scientists found that they were able to accurately predict those that developed cancer, particularly for those with breast cancer.

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Dr Ruth Pfeiffer, who led the work, said: “These models might assist in clinical decision making related to the risks of these cancers.
“Using risk models to select individuals for screening or other interventions usually requires high discriminatory accuracy.
“Well calibrated risk models, even those with modest discriminatory accuracy, have several public health applications.
“These include designing cancer prevention trials, assessing the absolute burden of disease n the population and in sub groups and gauging the potential absolute reductions in risk from preventive strategies.”
The research has been welcomed by cancer research charities who say it should help make it easier for clinicians to identify women most at risk of cancer.
The NHS Cancer Screening Programme said it had no immediate plans to use mathematical models to help identify patients who need more regular screening.